Gold predicted to fall before hitting US$2000

Gold could hit US$2000 by the end of the year, according to the latest Thomson Reuters GFMS survey.
Gold could hit US$2000 by the end of the year, according to the latest Thomson Reuters GFMS Survey.
Released in London last week, the 46th annual survey by the consultancy did however stress that the price could fall below US$1550 an ounce over the next two months before rebounding to reach the predicted high.
Philip Klapwijk, GFMS’s global head of metal anyalytics, said global gold investment demand in 2012 is expected to reach close to 2000 tonnes – approximately 400 tonnes more than last year.
“The environment for gold investment should remain supportive this year,” he said.
“We’ve been above US$1900 within spitting distance of the (US$2000) price but we’ve seen a retracement recently with the stronger US Dollar.
“I think that’s the one question mark against gold’s move higher in US dollar terms – do we now see a period of US dollar strength and gold treading water for a bit?
“I think a lot depends upon monetary policy in the major economies. A lot depends upon whether we see further hits to confidence in fiat currencies. If we do see that and particularly if we also see inflation starting to worry people not perhaps just in China or India but also in Western countries, then we could well have a situation where gold goes viral, if you like, and we see significantly greater upside.”
He said gold investment demand was currrently “quite widespread”.
“It’s no longer really concentrated in just ETFs or by, shall we say, fund investments on the futures market.
“We’re now seeing significant demand for gold particularly in bar form and in coin form and that demand is occurring not just in Europe and North America but also in Asia where China in particular has been a fantastic growth market.”